Working Papers

• Adapting to Heat Extremes with Unequal Access to Cooling: Evidence from India.
  (with I. Sue Wing) [ Job Market Paper | AI Generated Podcast ]
  • Abstract

    As global temperatures rise, the unequal access to residential cooling technologies, especially air conditioning, poses a critical challenge for heat adaptation in developing countries. To mitigate this disparity, affordable alternatives like evaporative coolers have been proposed. However, the extent to which they provide protection against extreme heat is uncertain. This paper investigates the inequality in heat adaptation, examining the effectiveness of alternative cooling technologies in mitigating mortality impacts from extreme heat in India for the period 2014-2019. Our empirical results highlight a critical trade-off in heat adaptation. While we find that the expensive air-conditioning proves to be highly effective in reducing temperature-related mortality, its ownership and use remains low, predominantly limited to high-income cities. In contrast, many Indian households, including low-income ones, purchase and use cheaper evaporative coolers, which we estimate offer reduced protection against heat stress. Our analysis then reveals that heat adaptation technologies have collectively reduced heat-related deaths by 21%, generating an annual gross welfare gain of $32 billion. Notably, the wide prevalence of evaporative coolers contributes to two-thirds of these benefits. Yet, our counterfactual scenario demonstrates that air conditioners, if as widespread as evaporative coolers, could have prevented 47% of the heat-related deaths. We conclude showing that subsidising air-conditioning is a cost-effective way to reduce heat-related mortality in India.

  • Presented at: 29th Annual EAERE Conference, 2024 AERE Summer Conference, 13th Annual IAERE Conference, Sciences Po Inequality and the Environment Symposium, 11th SISC Annual conference, University of Bologna Internal Seminar, CMCC@CaFoscari Internal Seminar, Boston University Center for Climate and Health, 4th University of Bologna PhD Workshop, Unibo Third-year PhD Internal Seminar, 2nd ERC-ENERGYA Scientific Workshop, 1st Padova Environmental Economics Worskhop
• Public finance resilience in the transition towards carbon neutrality: Modelling policy instruments in a global net-zero emissions.
  (with J. Fouré, R. Dellink, E. Lanzi) [ OECD Working Paper ] [ Status: R&R at Environmental and Resource Economics ]
  • Abstract

    This paper presents a detailed economic modelling analysis of public finance in the transition towards carbon neutrality. It outlines results from a Net-Zero Emission Ambition scenario, which reflects the ambition to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by mid-century, using a broad and regionspecific policy package that combines various policy instruments: carbon pricing, removal of fossil fuel support, regulations in the power sector, and other policies that stimulate investments by firms and households to reduce and decarbonise energy use. The analysis relies on the OECD global computable general equilibrium ENV-Linkages model. Results show that transitioning towards carbon neutrality is feasible when considering economic and fiscal consequences. The scenario achieves carbon neutrality while maintaining continued economic growth, despite a limited negative impact on global GDP and on public revenues. The fiscal effects reflect a tradeoff between instruments that increase public revenues (carbon pricing) or reduce public expenditures (fossil fuel subsidies removal), on the one hand, and more costly instruments (subsidies) and indirect effects (tax base erosion and changes in fiscal and economic structure) on the other hand.

  • Media Coverage: Financial Times
  • Presented at: Climate Economics Chair Annual Conference*, 25th GEA Annual Conference*, 15th IAMC Annual Meeting* [* by co-author]
• Income shocks, adaptation, and temperature-related mortality: Evidence from the Mexican labor market.
  (with L. Sarmiento, Martino Gilli, Soheil Shayegh) [ Draft | CESifo Working Paper ] [ Status: Under Review ]
  • Abstract

    This paper examines the role of positive income shocks in helping workers adapt to extreme temperatures. We use daily temperature variations alongside the exogenous implementation of a wage and fiscal policy in Mexican municipalities along the US border to show that increased disposable income significantly reduces temperature-related mortality in treated areas. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that income gains increase households’ adaptive capacity, particularly through higher electricity expenditures and the purchase of electric heaters. Our findings provide causal estimates of how income influences the marginal effect of temperature on mortality and contribute to the debate on the effectiveness of climate-related redistribution policies.

  • Presented at: 2025 AERE Summer Conference (scheduled)
• Emergency department visits and temperature: Evidence from Mexico.
  (with F.P. Colelli, L. Sarmiento) [ Draft | RFF Working Paper ] [ Status: Under Review ]
  • Abstract

    This paper estimates the impact of temperatures on emergency department visits using daily data from the universe of public hospitals in Mexico from 2008 to 2022. We find that cold temperatures decrease visits by up to 8.9% on the same day, while warm temperatures increase visits by as much as 3.6%. Using distributed lag models, we then show that cold temperatures can reduce visits for the next 30 days by up to 16.3%. For warm temperatures, contemporaneous and cumulative effects are similar (limited harvesting). These findings suggest that, unlike mortality, temperatures affect the demand for emergency services linearly. Leveraging the granularity of our dataset, we also document significant heterogeneities (e.g., higher sensitivity for children and teenagers) and relevant mechanisms like ecosystem dynamics and behavioral changes. Finally, we project that temperature-driven annual emergency department visits will increase by 0.24% by mid-century, resulting in an estimated increase of 92 million USD in annual medical expenditures in Mexico.

  • Presented at: 13th Annual IAERE Conference* [* by co-author]
• Co-benefits of Substance Abuse Regulation on Temperature and Intimate Partner Violence.
  (with G. Zappalà) [ Draft ]
  • Abstract

    Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a critical public health concern often linked to substance abuse. Environmental factors can exacerbate substance addiction and use, potentially leading to increased violence. Building on prior work showing that higher temperatures increase violent behavior, we investigate whether substance abuse regulations affect the relationship between temperature and IPV. Leveraging administrative data combined with random fluctuations in daily temperature the jurisdiction level in the United States, we document that an exogenous abuse-deterrent reformulation of opioids in 2010 significantly attenuates the temperature-IPV relationship in counties with higher initial rates of prescription opioid usage. Our main mechanism suggests an indirect reduction in the complementary use of other substances, particularly alcohol, during hot days. Our findings indicate that policies targeting substance abuse may have co-benefits in mitigating the adverse effects of temperature increases.

  • Presented at: CESifo / ifo Junior Workshop on Energy and Climate Economics 2025, 13th Annual IAERE Conference, EIEE Annual Meeting, "Gender, Environment, and Social Dynamics" - CY Cergy Paris University, ifo Big Data Seminar Series, AXA Research Lab on Gender Equality Workshop*, CMCC/EIEE Internal Seminar, IEB Public Policy Workshop*, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment*, 2nd Diversity and Human Capital Workshop: Well-being, 3rd Junior Economists Meeting - University Of Mlan, 1st Verona Early Career Workshop in Economics, University of Bologna Internal Seminar, University of Padova Internal Seminar* [* by co-authors]
  • Award: Best Paper Award at CESifo/ifo Junior Workshop on Energy and Climate Economics 2025
• Mortality, Temperature, and Public Adaptation Policy: Evidence from Italy.
  (with G. Valenti) [ Draft ]
  • Abstract

    In 2004, Italy introduced a national program to address heat-related health risks through public awareness campaigns, heatwave warning systems, and hospital protocols. Leveraging administrative mortality data, temperature variations, and the plausibly exogenous timing of the policy's rollout, this paper shows that the program mitigated the mortality impact of extreme heat (days at or above 30 °C) by more than 57%. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that the staggered implementation of the heat wave warning systems contributed to reducing excess mortality on days exceeding 30 °C in treated provinces. We further show that enhancing access to information is essential to achieving these mitigating effects. Our findings underscore the critical role of public adaptation policies that leverage information disclosure on the health risks associated with heat stress.

  • Presented at: 1st IdEP PhDs and Postdocs Workshop in Sustainable Economics*, OECD Brown Bag Lunch Meeting, ifo Christmas Conference [* by co-author]

(Selected) Working in Progress

• Assessing climate change costs for EU households (with L. Campagnolo, E. De Cian, et al.) [ Status: Preliminary Draft Available upon Request | Project: EESC Tender 2023 ]

• The (long-term) consequences of austerity policy on mortality and temperature relationship: Evidence from Italy (with G. Valenti) [ Status: Draft Available Soon ]

• The Impact of Temperature Extremes on Local Power Distribution (with F.P. Colelli, L. Sarmiento) [ Status: Draft Available Soon ]

• Does social identity influence adaptation to hot temperatures? (with E. De Cian and T. Randazzo) [ Status: Draft Available Soon | Project: PRICE - PRIN2022 ]

• The (Relative) Prices of Climate Change (with D. Difino) [ Status: Analysis Stage ]

• Harsh parenting and temperature (with E. De Cao and P. A. Naß) [ Status: Analysis Stage ]