Working Papers

• Adapting to Heat Extremes with Unequal Access to Cooling: Evidence from India.
  (with I. Sue Wing) [ Job Market Paper ]
  • Abstract

    As global temperatures rise, the unequal access to residential cooling technologies, especially air conditioning, poses a critical challenge for heat adaptation in developing countries. To mitigate this disparity, affordable alternatives like evaporative coolers have been proposed. However, the extent to which they provide protection against extreme heat is uncertain. This paper investigates the inequality in heat adaptation, examining the effectiveness of alternative cooling technologies in mitigating mortality impacts from extreme heat in India for the period 2014-2019. Our empirical results highlight a critical trade-off in heat adaptation. While we find that the expensive air-conditioning proves to be highly effective in reducing temperature-related mortality, its ownership and use remains low, predominantly limited to high-income cities. In contrast, many Indian households, including low-income ones, purchase and use cheaper evaporative coolers, which we estimate offer reduced protection against heat stress. Our analysis then reveals that heat adaptation technologies have collectively reduced heat-related deaths by 21%, generating an annual gross welfare gain of $32 billion. Notably, the wide prevalence of evaporative coolers contributes to two-thirds of these benefits. Yet, our counterfactual scenario demonstrates that air conditioners, if as widespread as evaporative coolers, could have prevented 47% of the heat-related deaths. We conclude showing that subsidising air-conditioning is a cost-effective way to reduce heat-related mortality in India.

  • Presented at: 29th Annual EAERE Conference (scheduled), AERE Summer Conference, 12th Annual IAERE Conference, Sciences Po Inequality and the Environment Symposium (2024), 11th SISC Annual conference, University of Bologna Internal Seminar, CMCC@CaFoscari Internal Seminar, Boston University Center for Climate and Health, 4th University of Bologna PhD Workshop (2023), Unibo Third-year PhD Internal Seminar, 2nd ERC-ENERGYA Scientific Workshop, 1st Padova Environmental Economics Worskhop (2022)
• Co-benefits of Opioid-reformulation on Temperature and Intimate Partner Violence. (with G. Zappalà) [ Preliminary Draft ]
  • Abstract

    Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a critical public health concern often linked to substance abuse. Environmental factors can exacerbate substance addiction and use, potentially leading to increased violence. Building on prior work showing that higher temperatures increase violent behavior, we investigate whether substance abuse regulations affect the relationship between temperature and IPV. Leveraging administrative data combined with random fluctuations in daily temperature the jurisdiction level in the United States, we document that an exogenous abuse-deterrent reformulation of opioids in 2010 significantly attenuates the temperature-IPV relationship in counties with higher initial rates of prescription opioid usage. Our main mechanism suggests an indirect reduction in the complementary use of other substances, particularly alcohol, during hot days. Our findings indicate that policies targeting substance abuse may have co-benefits in mitigating the adverse effects of temperature increases.

  • Presented at: AXA Research Lab on Gender Equality Workshop, CMCC/EIEE Internal Seminar, IEB Public Policy Workshop, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 2nd Diversity and Human Capital Workshop: Well-being, 3rd Junior Economists Meeting - University Of Mlan, 1st Verona Early Career Workshop in Economics, University of Bologna Internal Seminar, University of Padova Internal Seminar (2024)
• The Impact of Air-conditioning on Residential Electricity Demand across World Countries.
  (with E. De Cian, G. Falchetta, Y. Romitti, I. Sue Wing) [ Draft | Working Paper (SSRN) | Slides ] [ Status: R&R at Journal of Environmental Economics and Management ]
  • Abstract

    This paper provides the first global assessment of the energy implications of households' climate change adaptation through air-conditioning. We pool household survey data from 25 countries and employ a discrete-continuous choice econometric framework to simultaneously estimate the adoption and utilisation of air-conditioning. After identifying how individual drivers determine households' adaptation behaviours, we combine the estimated responses with socioeconomic, demographic, and, climate change scenarios available at a high spatial resolution to project future air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand, as well as the contribution of individual determinants. On average, we find that air-conditioning ownership increases households' electricity consumption by 34%, but the effect is highly heterogeneous, and it varies with weather conditions, income levels and across countries, revealing the importance of behaviors, practices, climate, and technologies. Compared to other socioeconomic, demographic, and climatic drivers of electricity demand, air-conditioning has the leading marginal effect, and it can account for a significant share of households' budget. We then show that, especially in developing and emerging countries, age, education, and urbanisation reinforce the positive, long-term effect of income and high temperatures on air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand for space cooling. The overall effect of socio-demographic, economic, and climatic drivers is a net increase in regional and global air-conditioning electricity by 2050, with a related social cost $128-175 billion due to the additional CO₂ emissions. Our findings highlight electricity expenditure for air-conditioning serves as an important benchmark for tracking a new dimension of energy poverty related to the need of space cooling. Moreover, our projections point at the emerging risk associated with this form of households' adaptation.

  • Presented at: 11th Annual IAERE Conference, CMCC@CaFoscari Internal Seminar, 28th Annual EAERE Conference, LSE Environment Week (2023)
• Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050.
  (with E. De Cian, G. Falchetta, I. Sue Wing) [ Working Paper | Slides ] [ Status: Accepted at Nature Communications ]
  • Abstract

    The interplay of a warming climate and socio-demographic transformations will increase global heat exposure. Assessing future use and impacts of energy-intensive appliances for indoor thermal adaptation is therefore a crucial policy goal. Here we train statistical models on multi-country household survey data (n = 480,555) to generate global gridded projections of residential air-conditioning (AC) uptake and use. Our results indicate that the share of households owning AC could grow from 26% to a scenario median of 38% by 2050, implying a doubling of residential AC electricity consumption, to 925 TWh/yr. This growth will be highly unequal both within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4.5 billion heat-exposed people may lack AC access in 2050. Outcomes will largely depend on socio-economic development and climate change pathways. Our gridded projections can support the modelling of the impacts of residential AC on decarbonization pathways and health outcomes.

  • Presented at: EIEE Monthly Meeting (2023), 15th IAMC Annual Meeting (2022)
• Public finance resilience in the transition towards carbon neutrality: Modelling policy instruments in a global net-zero emissions
  (with J. Fouré, R. Dellink, E. Lanzi) [ OECD Working Paper ] [ Status: R&R at Environmental and Resource Economics ]
  • Abstract

    This paper presents a detailed economic modelling analysis of public finance in the transition towards carbon neutrality. It outlines results from a Net-Zero Emission Ambition scenario, which reflects the ambition to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by mid-century, using a broad and regionspecific policy package that combines various policy instruments: carbon pricing, removal of fossil fuel support, regulations in the power sector, and other policies that stimulate investments by firms and households to reduce and decarbonise energy use. The analysis relies on the OECD global computable general equilibrium ENV-Linkages model. Results show that transitioning towards carbon neutrality is feasible when considering economic and fiscal consequences. The scenario achieves carbon neutrality while maintaining continued economic growth, despite a limited negative impact on global GDP and on public revenues. The fiscal effects reflect a tradeoff between instruments that increase public revenues (carbon pricing) or reduce public expenditures (fossil fuel subsidies removal), on the one hand, and more costly instruments (subsidies) and indirect effects (tax base erosion and changes in fiscal and economic structure) on the other hand.

  • Media Coverage: Financial Times
  • Presented at: Climate Economics Chair Annual Conference (2023), 25th GEA Annual Conference, 15th IAMC Annual Meeting (2022)

Working in Progress

• The long-term consequences of austerity policy on mortality and temperature relationship: Evidence from Italy (with G. Valenti) [ Status: Analysis Stage ]

• Mortality, temperature, and public adaptation policy (with G. Valenti) [ Status: Analysis Stage ]

• The (Relative) Prices of Climate Change (with D. Difino) [ Status: Analysis Stage ]

• Hot temperatures and vulnerability (with E. De Cian and T. Randazzo) [ Status: Analysis Stage | Project: PRICE - PRIN2022 ]

• Assessing climate change costs for EU households (with L. Campagnolo, E. De Cian, et al.) [ Status: Draft Available Soon | Project: EESC Tender 2023 ]

• Temperature, Mortality and Policy-induced Income Shocks (with F.P. Colelli, L. Sarmiento) [ Status: Analysis Stage ]

• Emergency Room Visits and Temperature: Evidence from Mexico (with F.P. Colelli, L. Sarmiento) [ Status: Analysis Stage ]